Polymarket Geopolitical Risk Index

Purpose

This agent quantifies geopolitical exposure at country level by combining live prediction market signals with structural peace and macro-risk baselines to produce actionable risk scores for financial institutions.

Primary users

Primary users are risk, strategy, compliance, and investor relations teams in banks and other financial institutions that need a consistent view of geopolitical risk across countries and over time.

Where it fits (process/stage/trigger)

It fits into ongoing country risk monitoring, periodic governance reviews, regulatory stress testing, and event-driven escalation when geopolitical developments affect exposure, portfolio allocation, or executive reporting.

Key capabilities / workflow

The agent ingests live markets from Polymarket and Manifold, aligns them with Global Peace Index and historical GPR and EPU datasets, applies severity-weighted classifications to relevant events, calculates country risk scores from 0 to 100, detects anomalies and historical shifts, and publishes results through a bilingual dashboard with heatmaps and time series.

Inputs

Inputs include Polymarket Gamma API data, Manifold Markets API data, Global Peace Index 2026 data, historical GPR and EPU series, and a curated library of more than 310 geopolitical events used for retrospective analysis and signal interpretation.

Outputs / Deliverables

Outputs include country-level geopolitical risk scores, an interactive world heatmap, severity-classified market contribution views, historical Z-score trend charts with event detection, and a French and English dashboard for monitoring and reporting.

Value

The agent gives institutions a faster and more quantitative view of geopolitical exposure, supports ICAAP and RAF stress-testing exercises, strengthens risk governance expectations from regulators, and improves management, investor, and competitive intelligence briefings with transparent country-level evidence.